This isn't exactly exciting or anything, but I decided to go ahead and buy a batch of Walmart bonds. I needed a certain amount of bond position anyways, and Scottrade will buy them for you for free. Plus, there's no expense ratios involved, and I think Walmart bonds are pretty solid.

The "downside", if you want to call it that, is that you can't pull them out until they mature, which will be two years from now for mine. The interest for the 2 year is 5% per year, and this is done through the Roth so no capital gains tax.

While I've bought stocks for a little while now, I confess this is the first time I've bought individual bonds. Sure, I've had bond funds before, and still do in 401(k), just not individual bonds.

Also, I've noticed that some bonds are more expensive than others. I thought the Walmart bonds were relatively pricey at $108 a piece, but I guess that's also what happens when you buy something that seems to be in demand....

The final thing I'm hoping to do for 2009 is to shift some of my rollover money into the Roth as well. Of course, I'll have to pay taxes for it, and truth is, I'm not sure if I have the spare cash to pay for the amount I want to convert. We shall see though.

Anybody ever bought bonds? If so, how did that work out for you?

Well, for me and my stock positions anyway. The GDP quarterly report just came out, and it's beaming with happy news.

The bulls claim that this is the first sign of a fundamental economic recovery. A real green shoot. The bears, however, believe that this Indian summer is the result of the government stimulus program.

Alas, I am in the bearish camp.

I've been slowly taking some off the table throughout this warming, but now, I am completely out. But I can't complain since I'm also sitting on a pile of money, even if it's a small one.

I'm not sure what to do next. I'm over-due for a rebalancing anyways, so I'll definitely work on that. Beyond that, I'm going to wait and see what the market does next, after the earnings season and the stimulus programs.

So somebody wanted to see the email I sent to my dad. Well, here it is:

Hi dad. How are you? I am fine and so are the kids. I don't know what to talk about, but I still look at the stock market. Maybe I shouldn't, because I think something bad may happen soon.

The economy is sick, and the government added a lot of money to fight it, like trying to cause a fever to fight off an illness. Of course, if the fever is too high, that's dangerous too. People are getting scared now because it may be too high.

So, the government has to stop sooner or later, and the market will probably fall some. Nothing bad like last year though. But, I decided to sell some stock today anyways.

Please take care.

He's a doctor, and hence, my patient analogy. Also, I way over-simplified the situation, but that's the point of the exercise.

Stock market talk.

So, my dad is trying out this internet technology and he had me email him. And since I'm so pre-occupied with trying to figure out the stock market, I suppose it was inevitable that I would try to email him about it.

My dad's a smart man and he also holds individual stocks, but his primary interest isn't so much as stock trading or even investing, but rather, he just wants to retire. Can't blame the guy.

But between his interest being largely casual and our language barrier, I found myself trying to explain my stock market thoughts in very simple terms so that he can understand it.

And then, something funny happened along the way. By having my words be held personally accountable to my dad, and being forced to use simple terms, I suddenly found myself... I don't quite know how to articulate this....

Well, most of the time, I'm just lost for words. Anything that is too complicated or is highly speculative, I had to throw it straight out the window. The rest had to make sense in such a way that any reasonable person on the street can understand it.

In other words, my theses had to be simple, clear, and convincing. And I tell you, there wasn't a whole lot to say when I was done.

But just the exercise helped me so much to clear my own thoughts that I began writing additional emails to him, just for my own sake.

This is an amazing technique! I think I'm going to keep doing this exercise from now on, even if I don't actually email him some of these, because like I said, a lot of the theses simply fell apart, and I don't want to send him those.

So... thanks dad!

Stock market talk.

One of the more curious phenomenon I've observed is that a lot of things could be going through my head even though I could still end up doing absolutely nothing with my trades.

Take my current oil position for example. Er, oil services with a side of natural gas to be exact. Conoco Philips (COP). Since the time of my purchase, the darn thing has run up to 20% YTD.

I bought it when oil was like $30 a barrel, and though I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, it doesn't take a genius to realize that it has gone way too low. The second I heard OPEC was cutting substantial supplies, I was in.

But now, we're at a point where I feel oil has reached a fair market value... or at least one that OPEC seems to be satisfied with, especially considering that we are still in the midst of a recession.

So, now I have to figure out what I think may happen next. I know oil producers have a ton of oil standing idle. I just read that they're already introducing more supply, but still, they are deliberately trying not to flood the market to maintain current prices.

Now, here's the thing. If the economy recovers, they'll be happy to unload their excess. I don't think they'll deliberately choke supplies to jack up current prices even more because they know the delicate condition of the current markets. That and considering they just increased their supplies by a bit, and I think that action speaks for itself.

Contrast that with a double dip scenario. The market goes back down, and what do they do? They may decide to cut supplies again to maintain current pricing, but that's not likely as they have fought internally in the past against such a move. Again, they are all too aware of market conditions.

What is more likely to happen is that they may more or less maintain current levels and let the price of oil fall again. Again, if we slip back into recessionary lows, the last thing they want is to stifle recovery by having gas prices too high. They may settle for $60 or even $50 a barrel.

The market could conceivably move sideways as well, but it's hard for me to imagine that such a market trend is sustainable with so much going on. And anyways, COP isn't the only dividend producer I have, so I'm still good for the market going sideways....

At least that's what's going through my mind right now. For now, I haven't sold yet, but I think I am getting ready to on the basis that there seems to be more downsides than there are upsides. Besides, 20% gain is pretty respectable, and there's nothing wrong with locking that in....

Anybody have any thoughts on this?

Kraft is feeling down today because he tried to woo Cadbury, but she turned up her nose at the $16.7 billion in flowers and engagement ring.

But you know what? Kraft really is a good catch, even if Cadbury thinks she could do better. Seriously, he's a highly dependable guy, offering a great product line that sells well even in this recession. He also pays out an insane amount of dividend (currently 4.37%).

So, it really doesn't make much fundamental sense anyway for him to have a 5% to 6% technical drop today. Kraft is still the same great guy as he was yesterday and the day before.

Who knows what will happen next in the soap opera that Kraft is entangled in, but whatever it is, I'm still happy to get him for a dipped price of $26.50.